Pages

Friday, 30 September 2011

High Probability Forex Trading

High probability forex trading is all about taking positions where the odds of you making a profit are massively in your favour. So whether you are a short-term or long-term trader you always want to be looking for positions where you are more likely to win than lose.
This sounds obvious but most traders don't take probabilities into account when trading, which is a shame because it's quite easy to do, and could result in them being far more selective about their trading, and therefore more profitable.
All you need to do is to rate each potential trade out of 10 regarding the probability of the trade being a winning one, before you enter a position. So for example if you are thinking about entering a short position, and the technical indicators heavily back you up, for example MACD and TRIX have crossed down, RSI and Stochastics are in overbought territory, and EMA's have turned downwards, then you may rate your chances of winning as good and may give this set-up an 8, 9 or even 10 out of 10.
Therefore this trade would clearly be worth entering because the odds of you winning are high. If however, the technical indicators are conflicting with each other, for example, then you may only rate this trade as a 5 or 6 out of 10, which means it probably wouldn't be worth trading.
I use this system myself and only trade positions that I have assigned an 8 or higher. This ensures that my win ratio is always quite high, and it prevents me from taking any impulsive or risky trades.
This is why I like trading my 4 hour trading strategy (available by signing up to my newsletter) because the EMA crossovers that it highlights are nearly always around 8 out of 10 or higher, based on past results. So they therefore have quite a high success rate.
This is also why I don't like to trade off of 1 or 5 minute charts because whatever system I try (and I've experimented with a lot of systems and strategies in my time), I very rarely find trades that I am very confident of and that therefore merit a high rating out of 10. Nearly every trade is borderline and therefore around a 5 or 6 out of 10 at best.
So next time you trade the forex markets, you may like to try giving each of your potential trades a rating out of 10, based on the probability of it being a winning one, and only trade those coming in at 8 or higher. This way your win ratio will probably be a lot higher and your profits should hopefully increase because you are not trading those borderline trades that you shouldn't have traded in the first place.

2 comments: